Archive for August, 2008

Book Finished: Friday Night Lights

Sunday, August 31st, 2008

Friday Night Lights by H. G. Bissinger is the national bestseller book that begat the well-grossing movie that begat the (surprisingly still active) television series. In the book, Bissinger tells the tale of Permian High School’s 1998 football season.

Situated in the oil-driven city of Odessa, Texas, Permian’s story provides a wonderful glimpse into the world that is high school football in a town that had nothing else to look to for hope, fun, or much else. Bissinger does an expert job of covering all aspects of Permian’s story: the back stories, the side stories, and the main story of Permian’s drive for a state championship. Throughout it all, he brings the reader into the raw emotions surrounding Permian’s drive and gives a great sense of what it means to be a Permian football player, opponent, and fan.

The best line of the whole book has to be the following. It comes in a chapter where Bissinger is describing how bad the economy of Odessa is because of falling oil prices.

“After all,” one oilman reasoned, “we’re just another Middle East war away from another [oil] boom.”

Indeed. The Iraq War started in 2003.

Next Up: Basilica: The Splendor and the Scandal: Building St. Peter’s

Hiking in Shenandoah National Park

Monday, August 18th, 2008

Two weeks ago, Valerie got the brilliant idea that we should go hiking in Shenandoah National Park. We have an annual pass, so it would be free to do and it seemed like fun.

So, we went hiking and promptly got lost. We were trying to hike the Turk Gap Trail, but the first clue that we got lost was the “US Boundary NPS” sign we saw posted on a tree along the trail. Thankfully, the trail we were on was extremely easy to follow and we were able to hike back to the car. Unfortunately, when you walk downhill the entire way to the sign, it means you have to walk uphill the entire way back.

Determined to find the trail we were supposed to walk along, Valerie suggested we go hiking again this past weekend. We checked, double-checked, and triple-checked and were sure of where to go. Sure enough, we managed to find, and stay on, the actual Turk Gap trail. However, rather than walking downhill the entire way to the end of the trail, it was uphill the entire way. And it was steep!

Still, the views from the top of the mountain at the end of the Turk Gap Trail were well worth the heavy workout.

Michael Phelps: Living Legend

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

Though most people have heard of the exploits of Michael Phelps at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, I think it bears a further look into his greatness.

To finish with Michael Phelps, you have to start with Mark Spitz, the man by which Phelps was measured against in these Olympics. In the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, which were marred by the killing of 11 athletes from Israel, Spitz set a goal of winning six gold medals. By the end of competition, Spitz had not only won seven gold medals, he had also set seven world records.

His events, times, and margins of victory:

  • 100m Freestyle: 0:51.22 (-0.43)
  • 200m Freestyle: 1:52.78 (-0.95)
  • 100m Butterfly: 0:54.27 (-1.29)
  • 200m Butterfly: 2:00.70 (-2.16)
  • 4x100m Freestyle Relay: 3:26.42 (-3.30)
  • 4x200m Freestyle Relay: 7:35.78 (-5.91)
  • 4x100m Medley Relay [Butterfly]: 3:48.16 (-3.96)

Clearly, Spitz and his teammates dominated the competition. With his two gold, one silver, and one bronze in the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico, Spitz pushed his total to nine gold, one silver, and one bronze.

No matter what pressure was on Phelps before the Beijing Olympics, the standard had been set high by Spitz and his teammates. Seven gold medals and seven world records seemed unreachable by most every expert who weighed in on the debate prior to the start of the Games.

By the time he finished the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Phelps completed his quest for eight gold medals and pushed his career medals to 14 gold and two bronze. With 16 total medals, Phelps ranks 2nd behind Soviet gymnast Larissa Latynina (18) in total Olympic medals. His 14 total gold medals is the most by any Olympian.

His events, times, and margins of victory:

  • 200m Freestyle: 1:42.96 (-1.89)
  • 100m Butterfly: 0:50.58 (-0.01)
  • 200m Butterfly: 1:52.03 (-0.67)
  • 200m Individual Medley Relay: 1:54.23 (-2.29)
  • 400m Individual Medley Relay: 4:03.84 (-2.32)
  • 4x100m Freestyle Relay: 3:08.24 (-0.08)
  • 4x200m Freestyle Relay: 6:58.56 (-5.14)
  • 4x100m Medley Relay [Butterfly]: 3:29.34 (-0.70)

Now for the comparisons.

First, let’s look at the average margin of victory for the individual events per 100m. It’s not fair to simply compare average margins of victory because of the different distances of the events.

Mark Spitz (4 events): 0.201s
Michael Phelps (5 events): 0.131s

The advantage seems to go to Spitz, but it could be easily argued that the competition is tougher now than it was in 1972. Several experts make this case in several sports, most notably Bill James in baseball, given the better training methods, workout programs, etc. Of course, Phelps also has better swimsuits and pools, so I think Spitz still gets the edge in this department. But just slightly.

Next, we can look at the average margin of victory in the team events and it’s quite clear that Spitz and his teammates dominated the competition much more than Phelps and his teammates. There’s really no need for further comparison.

And now we get to the interesting comparisons.

Spitz and Phelps shared six events in their record-setting performances. Clearly, since he set seven world records and one Olympic record, Phelps was faster than Spitz in all of these events. The question is exactly how much faster Phelps was. Instead of just showing a direct time comparison, I think this comparison is best shown by making Spitz one of Phelps’ competitors and seeing what place Spitz would have come in with his 1972 times inserted into the 2008 events.

200m Freestyle

Mark Spitz: 1:52.78
Michael Phelps: 1:42.96

Mark Spitz Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz would have finished 5.31 seconds behind last place finisher Robbie Renwick. Renwick finished 4.51 seconds behind Phelps. In other words, Spitz would have finished more than twice as far back as the actual last place finisher.

100m Butterfly

Mark Spitz: 0:54.27
Michael Phelps: 0:50.58

Mark Spitz Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz would have finished 2.41 seconds behind last place finisher Ryan Pini. Pini finished 1.28 seconds behind Phelps. In this instance, Spitz would have finished almost three times as far back as the actual last place finisher.

200m Butterfly

Mark Spitz: 2:00.70
Michael Phelps: 1:52.03

Mark Spitz Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz would have finished 5.56 seconds behind last place finisher Nikolay Skvortsov. Skvortsov finished 3.11 seconds behind Phelps. Again, Spitz would have finished more than twice as far back as the actual last place finisher.

4x100m Freestyle Relay

Mark Spitz (and teammates): 3:26.42
Michael Phelps (and teammates): 3:08.24

Mark Spitz (and teammates) Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz and his teammates would have finished 13.55 seconds behind last place finisher Great Britain. Great Britain finished 4.63 seconds behind Phelps and his teammates. In this case, Spitz and his teammates would have finished almost four times as far back as the actual last place finisher.

4x200m Freestyle Relay

Mark Spitz (and teammates): 7:35.78
Michael Phelps (and teammates): 6:58.56

Mark Spitz (and teammates) Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz and his teammates would have finished 22.76 seconds behind last place finisher South Africa. South Africa finished 14.06 seconds behind Phelps and his teammates. Spitz and his teammates would have finished over two-and-a-half times as far back as the actual last place finisher.

4x100m Medley Relay [Butterfly]

Mark Spitz (and teammates): 3:48.16
Michael Phelps (and teammates): 3:29.34

Mark Spitz (and teammates) Place: 9th place (out of 9 racers)
Spitz and his teammates would have finished 35.29 seconds behind last place finisher Great Britain. Great Britain finished 4.63 seconds behind Phelps and his teammates. Spitz and his teammates would have finished almost nine times as far back as the actual last place finisher.

It’s clear the sport of Swimming, much like many other sports, has come a long way since 1972 and it’s clear that Spitz and his teammates, using 1972 training methods, likely wouldn’t have even made it to the Olympics, much less the Finals of the Olympics.

But, as I said before, times have changed and Swimming is not the sport that it was in 1972. The oldest world record on the books at the 2008 Beijing Olympics was Janet Evans’ 800m Freestyle record of 8:16.22. That record was broken during the Beijing Olympics by Great Britain’s Rebecca Adlington by 2.12 seconds. The record, set in August 1989, had lasted 19 years and survived four Olympics before Adlington’s performance.

So, not only is Swimming not what it was in 1972, it’s not even what it was just half as far back in 1989.

Still, credit has to be given to Phelps and his teammates for what they accomplished. In a time when the competition is sometimes just a fingernail behind you — as was the case in the 100m Butterfly — Phelps and his teammates dominated.

And now the final comparison; where Spitz and Phelps differed.

Spitz and Phelps are clearly both 100-200m performers. The six events they shared showed this. However, while Phelps didn’t go after the 100m Freestyle gold like Spitz did, what he did go after may have set him apart from Spitz.

The individual medley relay is a tough race by any measure. Not only does it require the competitors to swim each of the four strokes — Butterfly, Backstroke, Breaststroke, and Freestyle in that order — it also requires specific technique for the transition between strokes. Just imagine the transition from backstroke (lying on your back, leading with your hands) to breaststroke (back up, leading with your hands) and you get a sense of the difficulty.

Phelps not only raced the 200m Individual Medley Relay, which requires 50m, or one length of the pool, with each stroke, he also raced the 400m Individual Medley Relay, which requires 100m with each stroke. In both instances he won by over two seconds and dominated the field.

While it can seem a minor thing, Phelps swimming the two individual medley relays is what truly sets him apart from Spitz. While Spitz was able to concentrate on the butterfly and freestyle strokes, Phelps had to also work on the breaststroke and backstroke. And in the midst of other specialists who added in the missing strokes to complete the individual medley relay, Phelps proved he is a truly dominate all-around swimmer.

To take absolutely nothing away from Spitz, who is legendary in his own right, Phelps is the one who will possibly be remembered as the greatest swimmer ever.

With Dara Torres winning a silver medal in the Beijing Olympics at age 41 and Michael Phelps being just 23 years old, it may be many more Olympics before the history books close on the living legend that is Michael Phelps.

It’s Not Big Oil?

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

A group out of D.C. called “Prayer at the Pump” is claiming that their prayers, and not market forces, are the reason gas prices have fallen in recent weeks.

“We were down in Huntsville, Alabama. We finished praying,” Mr [Rocky] Twyman said. “Immediately the owners came out and changed the gas prices. They brought it down.

Personally, I think Mr. Twyman needs a lesson in the scientific phrase “correlation does not imply causation.”

He also needs to go to GasBuddy’s Historical Price Charts and change the time period to “3 Year.” Then he’ll see that, historically, prices always come down in August, the end of the Summer Driving Period. They also go back up around November/December during the Holiday Driving Period. Then they head down a bit in January and start the steady climb towards Spring.

In other words, anybody with any historical knowledge of gas prices should have known gas prices would be coming down this month.

My personal predictions for the National Average, assuming Prayer at the Pump isn’t the reason for the recent drop?

  • September: $3.60
  • October: $3.50
  • November: $3.60
  • December: $3.60
  • January: $3.50
  • February: $3.60
  • March: $3.70
  • April: $4.00
  • May: $4.30
  • June: $4.50
  • July: $4.60
  • August: $4.00

See you in a year.

Book Finished: Hannibal Rising

Saturday, August 9th, 2008

True to form, Thomas Harris presents the dark and fairly disturbing childhood story of Hannibal Lecter in Hannibal Rising. Ranging from when Lecter was a small child until his 20s, the book does a great job for fans of the series in helping to show how Hannibal the Cannibal came to be.

Interestingly, Hannibal Rising also does a good job of making Lecter a sympathetic character. Though those who have read the other three books (Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal, and Red Dragon) will surely know what is to come in Lecter’s life, a deeper understanding of his childhood makes it difficult to take issue with his early exploits.

Definitely recommended reading for fans of the Hannibal Lecter series of books from Harris.

Next Up: Friday Night Lights (back to non-fiction for now)

Bad Information or Senility

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

In the span of approximately two weeks, I’ve gotten the same odd piece of mail twice. It’s a fairly large envelope (big enough to fit 8-1/2 x 11 paper) and it clearly has my name and address in the “To” window. But, I have a feeling the sender has the wrong person.

Why?

Because the mail is coming from the AARP and they’re claiming they have discounted insurance available to me now that I’m over the age of 65.

Either AARP has gotten some bad information about my age or I’m truly going senile.

Not So Cuil

Friday, August 1st, 2008

If you don’t already know, Cuil (pronounced like “cool”) is a new search engine that was developed by some former Google employees. They claim to have indexed over 121 billion (with a B) web pages, which is 3 times as many as Google and 10 times as many as MSN.

With much fanfare, Cuil launched earlier this week and, with more fanfare, subsequently crashed. For the most part, on launch day, users were unable to access the search engine. And those who were able to access it were getting confusing results for their queries, especially with regards the thumbnails that sometimes appear next to Cuil’s results.

The typical thing to do, for those of us in the technology field, is to search for one’s name and see what comes back. Given that I have something like a bagillion web sites, it’s usually not hard to find my name. So, here are some of the quick stat comparisons between a Google, Yahoo, MSN, and Cuil search for me: Fred Telegdy.

Google

Google finds 6,430 results for my name. The #1 result is my personal web site, SmoothySmooth. That’s followed by my Mozilla profile, Amazon profile, LinkedIn profile, Facebook profile, a post at CvilleNews about the Mas Tapas Bar fiasco, and my Creative Cow profile.

All in all, pretty good results.

Yahoo

Yahoo finds 2,510 results for my name. Again, the #1 result is SmoothySmooth. That’s followed by my Amazon profile, LinkedIn profile, Amazon again, Mozilla profile, Kafenatid.net (one of my other sites), the CvilleNews article, an archive of a post from an old blog of mine, and the direct link to the Mas Tapas Bar fiasco.

Not quite as impressive as Google, but the results all seem appropriate.

MSN

MSN finds just 226 results for my name. In a slight change, their #1 result is my LinkedIn profile. That’s followed by SmoothySmooth, my Amazon profile, the archived blog post, Amazon again, Creative Cow profile, and my Mozilla profile.

Definitely not as impressive as Google or Yahoo, but the results are still appropriate.

Cuil

Cuil finds 274 results for my name. And that’s about the only thing their search engine has in common with the rest. The results, in order, are:

  1. A Freakonomics Blog post where I received a “hat tip.”
  2. Another Freakonomics Blog post where I received a “hat tip.”
  3. Yet another Freakonomics Blog post where I received a “hat tip.”
  4. A listing for me at Zoominfo, which provides no substantially relavent information about me.
  5. The Mas Tapas Bar fiasco.
  6. A StaticBlog page that doesn’t even contain my name. At all. Not even “Fred.” If I really look, it appears that there is a post from 2007 that talks about several people, including “Brittany Robertson (‘Freddie’)” and “Paul Telegdy.”
  7. Still another Freakonomics Blog post where I received a “hat tip.” (yes, it’s the same as #3)
  8. A Darden page about Tsunami Relief (I was helping to collect donations) that no longer exists.
  9. The Billy Bush page at Spout.com that references Paul Telegdy, with no mention of “Fred.”
  10. SmoothySmooth finally makes an appearance.
  11. One last Freakonomics Blog post where I received a “hat tip.” (yes, it’s the same as #7)

Page 2 gets only SLIGHTLY better in that it at least has more results from SmoothySmooth, but it still contains random results, like this one.

Overall, Cuil is a mess. An utter and complete mess.

The worst part is that since it’s a web-based search engine, they could have launched without all the fanfare, got some buzz through viral marketing, all the while fixing the obvious issues in their results, and they would have been much better off.

Instead, they launched with a bang and quickly found themselves hurtling back towards Earth.

While there will certainly be people who use Cuil now and in the future, it’s going to take quite a change for me to ever use them as anything more than a quick humor break.